Had the democratic process been that of Australia where voting is compulsory, the polls indicate the result would have been to Remain from day zero, and would still be Remain (see and ). What has been largely ignored are the 12.9 million who did not vote. Percentage lead of LEAVE or REMAIN according to the polls post June 23 rd More Remain than Leave supporters who, for whatever reason, found voting too difficult, chose the easier option not to vote, probably because they believed that Remain would win.
It seems, according to the post-referendum polls, that this was the case. It is well known that polls affect both turnout and voting, particularly when it looks as though a particular result is a foregone conclusion. In fact, according to the first post-referendum poll (Ipsos/Newsnight, 29 th June), those who did not vote were, by a ratio of 2:1, Remain supporters. The leader of UKIP even conceded defeat on the night of the vote, presumably because the final polls were convincing that Remain would win. The poll predictions leading up to the referendum narrowed but a significant majority of late polls indicated that the country wanted to remain. Eleven of these polls indicate that the majority in the UK do not want Brexit. There have been at least 13 polls since June 23 rd which have asked questions similar to ‘Would you vote the same again’ or ‘Was the country right to vote for Brexit’. Moreover, according to predicted demographics, the UK will want to remain in the EU for the foreseeable future. However, in a close analysis, virtually all the polls show that the UK electorate wants to remain in the EU, and has wanted to remain since referendum day. The difference between leave and remain was 3.8 percent or 1.3 million in favour of Leave.